There is wide agreement among economists and market observers that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes will cause economic growth to grind to a halt, leading to a recession. Less talked about is the risk of a financial crisis as the U.S. central bank simultaneously tries to shrink its massive balance sheet. As expected, […]
Fed rate hikes, recession fears and political backlash leave ESG investors at a crossroads
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again on May 3, 2023, by a quarter point, making it the Fed’s 10th rate hike since March 2022 in an ongoing fight to tame inflation. These rate hikes have been reverberating through the economy, raising prospects of a recession amid heightened concerns about the fragile state of banks. […]
A hawkish Fed signals further rate hikes and sees a slowing economy – but not recession
The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark interest rate by a further three-quarters of a percentage point on July 27, 2022. The jump was expected by most economists, although some had thought the central bank would go further in its attempts to put the brakes on soaring inflation and impose a full point increase. The […]
why it’s happening and why interest rates are going up to combat it
Soaring prices have forced central banks in many developed countries to raise their interest rates in recent weeks. These organisations are in charge of attempts to rein in rising costs that are threatening to wreak havoc on household budgets in coming months. Western economies are currently experiencing two major shocks that are pushing up the […]
Jobs are up! Wages are up! So why am I as an economist so gloomy?
In any other time, the jobs news that came down on Dec. 2, 2022, would be reason for cheer. The U.S. added 263,000 nonfarm jobs in November, leaving the unemployment rate at a low 3.7%. Moreover, wages are up – with average hourly pay jumping 5.1% compared with a year earlier. So why am I […]
The Federal Reserve and the art of navigating a soft landing … when economic data sends mixed signals
With inflation easing and the U.S. economy cooling, is the Federal Reserve done raising interest rates? After all, gently bringing down the trajectory of prices without crashing the economy was the central bank’s objective when it began jacking up rates over a year ago. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of an economy’s output, expanded […]
Why stagflation is an economic nightmare – and may already be here
The economy is cooling while inflation remains elevated. And that is raising alarm bells among economists who worry it means “stagflation” is on the way. But what is stagflation exactly? We asked Veronika Dolar, an economist at SUNY Old Westbury and a visiting professor at Stony Brook University, to explain what it is, what causes […]
6 ways Canadians can prepare for the upcoming recession
Although it certainly feels like it, and many people believe it, we are not in a recession yet. While a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative GDP growth, it is essentially a period where economic growth falls significantly and unemployment rates rise. Given the lack of a precise definition, there is not […]